时空投影模型(STPM)的次季节至季节(S2S)预测应用进展          下载免费PDF全文

徐邦琪  臧钰歆  朱志伟  李天明 《大气科学学报》2020,43(1):212-224

随着数值天气预报技术和季节动力预报系统的发展,短期天气预报及长期气候预测的能力持续提高,然而介于两者之间的次季节至季节(S2S,两周至三个月)预测技巧偏低,成为当今气象学界和业务服务的难题。南京信息工程大学国家特聘专家李天明教授团队于2012年研发了基于时空投影技术的统计预报模型(STPM),成功地对中国大陆降水和气温距平,以及区域极端降水、夏季高温、冬季低温和西太平洋台风群发事件等高影响天气进行提前10~30 d的预报,并在国家气候中心及多个省份开展了业务应用。STPM也成功应用于台湾春雨预报、南海季风爆发和ENSO预测等季节至年际变化的预测。本文对S2S预测的理论基础、STPM的发展和应用进行了完整的介绍,并讨论了S2S预测业务中所面临的挑战和未来展望。  相似文献   

Behaviour of the winter North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Abdel Hannachi  Elizabeth A. Barnes  Tim Woollings 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(3-4):995-1007

A systematic analysis of the winter North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream latitude and wind speed from 52 model integrations, taken from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 3, is carried out and compared to results obtained from the ERA-40 reanalyses. We consider here a control simulation, twentieth century simulation, and two time periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) from a twenty-first century, high-emission A2 forced simulation. The jet wind speed seasonality is found to be similar between the twentieth century simulations and the ERA-40 reanalyses and also between the control and forced simulations although nearly half of the models overestimate the amplitude of the seasonal cycle. A systematic equatorward bias of the models jet latitude seasonality, by up to 7°, is observed, and models additionally overestimate the seasonal cycle of jet latitude about the mean, with the majority of the models showing equatorward and poleward biases during the cold and warm seasons respectively. A main finding of this work is that no GCM under any forcing scenario considered here is able to simulate the trimodal behaviour of the observed jet latitude distribution. The models suffer from serious problems in the structure of jet variability, rather than just quantitiative errors in the statistical moments.  相似文献   

The Oxford Principles     

Steve Rayner  Clare Heyward  Tim Kruger  Nick Pidgeon  Catherine Redgwell  Julian Savulescu 《Climatic change》2013,121(3):499-512

Scientific momentum is increasing behind efforts to develop geoengineering options, but it is widely acknowledged that the challenges of geoengineering are as much political and social as they are technical. Legislators are looking for guidance on the governance of geoengineering research and possible deployment. The Oxford Principles are five high-level principles for geoengineering governance. This article explains their intended function and the core societal values which they attempt to capture. Finally, it proposes a framework for their implementation in a flexible governance architecture through the formulation of technology-specific research protocols.  相似文献   

Radial and rotational velocities of young brown dwarfs and very low-mass stars in the Upper Scorpius OB association and the ρ Ophiuchi cloud core     

Ryuichi Kurosawa  Tim J. Harries  S. P. Littlefair 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,372(4):1879-1887

We present the results of a radial velocity (RV) survey of 14 brown dwarfs (BDs) and very low-mass (VLM) stars in the Upper Scorpius OB association (UScoOB) and three BD candidates in the ρ Ophiuchi dark cloud core. We obtained high-resolution echelle spectra at the Very Large Telescope using the Ultraviolet and Visual Echelle Spectrograph (UVES) at two different epochs for each object, and measured the shifts in their RVs to identify candidates for binary/multiple systems in the sample. The average time separation of the RV measurements is 21.6 d, and our survey is sensitive to the binaries with separation <0.1 au. We found that four out of 17 objects (or 24⁺¹⁶₋₁₃ per cent by fraction) show a significant RV change in 4–33 d time-scale, and are considered as binary/multiple 'candidates'. We found no double-lined spectroscopic binaries in our sample, based on the shape of cross-correlation curves. The RV dispersion of the objects in UScoOB is found to be very similar to that of the BD and VLM stars in Chamaeleon I (Cha I). We also found the distribution of the mean rotational velocities ( v   sin   i ) of the UScoOB objects is similar to that of the Cha I, but the dispersion of v   sin   i is much larger than that of the Cha I objects.  相似文献   

A maximum-likelihood method for fitting colour–magnitude diagrams     

Tim Naylor  R. D. Jeffries 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,373(3):1251-1263

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The effect of a dense atmosphere on the tidally induced potential of Titan     

Özgür Karatekin  Tim Van Hoolst 《Icarus》2006,183(1):230-232

The effect of the dense atmosphere of Titan on the tidal variations of the external gravitational potential of degree two is quantified. The atmospheric tides perturb the external gravitational potential of Titan in two ways. First, the atmosphere itself contributes directly to the external gravitational potential with a period of 15.945 days. Second, the variable loading of the atmosphere induces mass redistribution within Titan, which also changes the external gravitational potential. It is shown that the relative atmospheric contributions to the tides are most likely less than 2% and vanish almost completely for the most plausible models with a subsurface ocean. This suggest that atmospheric tidal perturbations will contribute only negligibly to Cassini measurements of Titan's gravitational field so that the tidal Love numbers derived from these observations can be directly interpreted in terms of the satellite's interior.  相似文献   

The Shear Testing Programme – I. Weak lensing analysis of simulated ground-based observations     

Catherine Heymans  Ludovic Van Waerbeke  David Bacon  Joel Berge  Gary Bernstein  Emmanuel Bertin  Sarah Bridle  Michael L. Brown  Douglas Clowe  Håkon Dahle  Thomas Erben  Meghan Gray  Marco Hetterscheidt  Henk Hoekstra  Patrick Hudelot  Mike Jarvis  Konrad Kuijken  Vera Margoniner  Richard Massey  Yannick Mellier  Reiko Nakajima  Alexandre Refregier  Jason Rhodes  Tim Schrabback  David Wittman 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,368(3):1323-1339

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Probing the IRC+10 ° 216 circumstellar envelope using spectroscopic observations of background stars     

Tim Kendall  Nicolas Mauron  June McCombie  Peter Sarre 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2004,289(3-4):203-206

A unique and novel set of observations has been undertaken to study the circumstellar envelope (CSE) of the nearby (130 pc) carbon star IRC +10° 216 using optical absorption spectroscopy towards twobackground stars lying beyond the envelope.The primary aim of the observations is to search for diffuse band (DIB)carriers in the CSE. The circumstellar H+2H₂column density expected along the line of sight towards the targets islarge compared to that derived from the small interstellar reddening inthis region, E _B-V< 0.03 mag. We summarise our mainfindings, already reported in Kendall et al. (2002): The 6284Å DIB is detected in the VLT/UVES spectrum of one target, but clearly arises inthe foreground ISM. No other DIB is seen. Hence the DIB carriers, if present in the CSE, have a low abundance relative to H in the C-rich envelope of IRC +10°216, in comparison with this ratio in theISM. An important new result, previously unreported, concerns the detectionof circumstellar C₂ via absorption of the Phillips bandnear 8760Å.  相似文献   

Three-dimensional dust radiative-transfer models: the Pinwheel Nebula of WR 104     

Tim J. Harries  John D. Monnier  Neil H. Symington  Ryuichi Kurosawa 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,350(2):565-574

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A comparison between cokriging and ordinary kriging: Case study with a polymetallic deposit     

Guocheng Pan  Dave Gaard  Ken Moss  Tim Heiner 《Mathematical Geology》1993,25(3):377-398

Cokriging is applied to the estimation of mineral resources in a polymetallic deposit. Several major steps, which should be taken in using cokriging, are highlighted as necessary practical considerations. The case study is related to an ultramafic copper-nickel deposit. Six elements, Cu, Ni, Au, Ag, Pt, and Pd, occurring in the deposit, are partitioned into three subgroups and the elements within each group are simultaneously estimated on the basis of over 4000 drill assays. A comparison was made between ordinary kriging and cokriging methods through cross-validation. The results show that cokriging has significantly improved the estimates of resources by reducing the overall estimation error by over 15% and the variance of error by over 20%.  相似文献